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Thinking Point #5

Coward: A person who shrinks from or avoids danger, pain, or difficulty

Remember that word. It defines 21st Century America. All of our politics, the security state that we are in the process of welcoming, are all based on fear, and cowardice.

The next time you see some story on the news talking about how we must give up not only our freedom, but our dignity as well, so that we can be safer, remember this: A coward is someone who shrinks from danger, pain or difficulty. A coward is ruled by fear.

Are we now a nation of cowards?

TSA: Broken From The Start

The real problem with the TSA isn’t that they have stupid rules and arbitrary rules that don’t do anything to protect us. The real problem is that that’s the only way they can work.

The TSA is focused on stuff. They have a list of stuff that they’re not supposed to allow on the plane. That seems like an easy way to keep air travelers safe, right? Keep dangerous things off the plane, then there won’t be any danger.

The problem is that dangerous stuff isn’t the problem. A person could get on an airplane with a box full of hand grenades, an M-60 machine gun, a knife, a sword, and even the most dangerous thing of all, a pair of nail clippers, and that flight would not be in any slightest danger at all if that person doesn’t intend any harm.

But a person with evil intent could wreak havoc with a pencil and piece of string.

There is an old saying that there are no dangerous weapons, only dangerous people. That is absolutely the case when you are talking about things like airplane security. Taking things away from people who don’t intend to do any harm does absolutely nothing for passenger security. (In fact, it may do harm, by reducing the passengers’ ability to protect themselves from the people of evil intent. Imagine if the non-terrorist passengers on 9/11 had all been carrying pistols.)

I’ll say that again: Taking ‘dangerous’ stuff away from good people is totally useless.

Taking dangerous stuff away from bad people isn’t all that useful either, because practically anything can be dangerous. The trick isn’t to try and stop dangerous stuff; the trick is to stop dangerous people.

The TSA is completely hopeless at that. They don’t even try.

People say that the Israeli method of doing airport security wouldn’t work here because of the volume of air travel, and that’s true enough. The lesson to be learned from how the Israelis do security isn’t to copy everything they do, but look at where their emphasis is. The Israelis do some scanning for bombs and the like, but most of their passenger screening efforts are on looking at the people, not the stuff.

That is what we don’t do, but what we should. There are no dangerous weapons, only dangerous people. The TSA isn’t interested in dangerous people, only in looking at their list of dangerous stuff and making sure nothing on that list gets past them. (Though they’re not even very good at that.)

That is why the TSA must go. It is a broken organization; no matter how good they get at doing what they do, it won’t make us safer because they do the wrong thing. And they aren’t even any good at that.

Hobby Lobby

Is politics a hobby?

Yes, James. Of course it is. I’m just waiting for each party to pick a sports team to identify with, though that may not be necessary. We already have the Blues and the Reds.

The First Amendment to the US Constitution

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

That is what was written a couple of centuries ago. Now, we live in a country where bribing politicians is Constitutionally protected free speech, but peaceably assembling to petition the government for a redress of grievances will get you swarmed with riot police.

Have a nice day.

An Open Letter to Congress

My local Congressthing, Kenny Marchant, was unwise enough to send me a flyer with a small survey attached. I thought it did not adequately cover the issues, or allow a sufficient range of responses, so I wrote him a letter to go with it. Here it is.

Dear Mr. Marchant,

Your little survey on the Economy & Jobs doesn’t give adequate space for a proper reply, so I thought I would elaborate.

Of possible interest to you is the fact that practically no one is interested in ANY of the issues that you asked us to rank in importance. (A survey on the Economy and Jobs that doesn’t actually mention jobs?) The issues of importance to American families right now are jobs and household expenses, and little else. In short, when families don’t have any money and can’t afford Christmas presents for their children (much less a college education for those children), and are struggling just to put food on the table, I can assure you that reforming the tax code is not something they are even aware of, much less concerned about. Your slate of ‘concerns’ is not only insensitive, but outright insulting.

Your ‘choice’ between two ‘plans’ to ‘spur economic growth’ is almost as bad. ‘Lowering the tax burden’ isn’t going to make a significant difference to any families that actually need the help, at the cost of massively increasing our public debt, and ‘reducing Federal regulations’ is only going to lead to an orgy of misconduct on the part of various corporations, another financial crisis, and another looting of the public treasury. As is always the case with ‘deregulation.’ (A code phrase we all recognize now, Mr. Marchant. We know it means “Let the corporations who are paying for my campaign do whatever they want.”)

Raising Federal spending and taxes has a better chance of success, though I notice that the Republican party, for some reason, is only interested in raising taxes on poor and working class families, while cutting taxes even further for upper income families. A very curious thing, taking more money from those who don’t have it and giving it to those who don’t need it. Perhaps the party could use that as a campaign slogan next year. “We take from the poor and give to the rich. Vote Republican!” Well, perhaps not.

It was increased Federal spending (preparing for involvement in WWII) that finally got us out of the Great Depression (the last time the financial markets looted the country and destroyed the economy), so we know it can work. Unfortunately, it is inevitable that Congress will initiate the wrong spending and raise the wrong taxes.

If you are truly interested in what your constituents think would be an effective plan to spur economic growth, sir (and I know that you are not, and in fact are not even reading this, but perhaps some bored person on your staff has gotten this far), here are my thoughts.

First, cut all military spending by 75%. Spread this reduction out over three years, so that at the end of that time the budget for all military spending is 25% of its 2011 level. (A savings of about $700 billion, give or take a few tens of billions.) Our military expenditures have doubled in the past 10 years, and were at unnecessarily high levels before then. Our preponderance of military power (we spend six times as much as China, and ten times as much as Russia) is not only excessive, but bankrupting us. We are destroying ourselves (and our future military power) for the sake of gross overkill. Any plan to reduce the Federal budget that does not reduce military expenditures is not a serious plan, and everyone knows it.

Second, return the marginal tax on upper income brackets to its Eisenhower Administration levels. Specifically, and this is just pulling a few numbers out of the air (though still a more serious proposal than I’ve seen from most Presidential candidates this year), 70% on income over $500,000 (married, filing jointly), 85% on income over $750,000, 90% on income over $1,000,000, and 95% on income over $5,000,000. (Approximating the upper tax brackets of the Eisenhower era, where the marginal rate was 92% on income over $400,000 – a sum about equivalent to $5 million today.) This will raise additional tax revenue in a way that will not impact consumer spending (the driving force of much of the economy). I would also restore the capital gains tax, but let’s not get into too much detail on a simple survey response.

Third, institute a 2.5% tariff on all imports into the United States, without exception. (This would raise approximately $47.5 billion, based on 2010 imports.) This money would go into a fund. Corporations which move American jobs overseas would also pay into this fund (let’s say $50,000 per worker as a reasonable starting figure). For the first three years of the fund’s existence, an additional $75 billion per year would be added from the Federal general fund.

This fund would be used specifically (and only) for retraining US workers. Grants would be available to people who are currently unemployed or working only part-time and whose household income was under $100,000 the previous year. Higher income families could obtain student loans from this fund at a reasonable rate (say, 5 years at 5% interest, with interest and payments deferred for two years before the five-year repayment period begins). Households with an income over $250,000 would not be eligible.

To clarify:
Household income under $100,000: Grant eligible, no repayment.
Household income between $100,000 and $250,000: Student loan eligible.
Household income over $250,000: Not eligible.

This is the cornerstone of the plan. It is absolutely essential to the long-term and short-term economic health of the country that middle- and working-class families be financially stable and productive. Workers with outdated skills, or skills in a field that has contracted and no longer has room for them, must be given the opportunity to rejoin the workforce at a level at least similar to what they used to enjoy. This is critical not only for the economy (families without money can’t spend, creating a vicious cycle that causes the economy to contract even further), and the Federal budget (people who aren’t working aren’t paying taxes), but also for their own feelings of happiness and self-worth, and the country’s political stability. A worker who used to make, say, $75,000 a year and enjoyed a middle-class lifestyle, but who is now scratching by on $25,000 a year is not only less economically productive, but also likely to be depressed, angry, and looking for someone to blame. None of these things are good for the nation’s health, or his own.

Requiring corporations to pay into this retraining fund not only provides additional money, obviously, but it also requires the corporations to absorb some of the cost of their decision to move that job to a country with cheaper labor, rather than forcing the public to pay the cost while the corporation enjoys all of the profits.

The tariff itself is not intended to be a barrier to international commerce, but simply to add a little friction to the country’s economic frontiers, to encourage American money to stay here and benefit other Americans. A slight leveling of the playing field, to help make American-made goods more competitive against imports. Even if (as is likely), all of the increase in the cost of consumer goods were passed on to consumers, the price increases would not be prohibitive. The tariff would add, at most, 13 cents to the cost of a $5 t-shirt, or $625 to the cost of a $25,000 car. (Not much more than the ‘destination charge’ that dealers tack on.) Such a slight increase would not overly upset consumers, who know that the money is going to help them, and people like them.

Fourth, reform the banking industry. Any bank that is ‘too big to fail’ is too big to exist. That is, if a bank is so big that its failure would have catastrophic consequences, and it must be ‘bailed out’ (given huge piles of taxpayer cash, with no strings attached), that bank is too big and should be broken up into smaller institutions that are not a threat to the national economy. No bank should be able to hold the nation’s economy hostage. Restore the Glass-Steagall Act, to protect commercial and savings banks from being looted to fund speculation by investment banks.

Fifth, the educational system is badly in need of a complete overhaul. We have a system designed to churn out moderately-skilled factory workers, but we have done away with almost all of the factory jobs. Without an educational system to turn out workers suitable for a post-industrial economy, the United States cannot, and will not, enjoy long-term economic productivity and competitiveness. The extent of the reforms necessary there, though, are beyond the scope of this letter (we need to throw out the whole system and start over), but vouchers for parents who chose not to send their kids to public school would be a good start.

Sixth, this country desperately needs real healthcare reform. We currently spend more on healthcare than any other country, and get less for it. Growing healthcare costs will consume an increasing proportion of the GDP in the coming years, dragging down the whole economy and pricing many families out of healthcare entirely. As with education reform, though, a detailed breakdown of what is needed is outside the scope of this note.

This plan would reduce the Federal budget by about $650 over the next three years and add about another $275 billion per year in revenue, cutting the deficit by $925 billion. (More or less, from some quick calculations on a piece of scratch paper.) Calculations for that three years would be a bit more complicated, as the military budget would still be shrinking, and a portion of that savings would be allocated to the worker retraining fund, but I think it is still a healthy improvement to the budget. It would also provide $367.5 billion over those three years to educate and train currently unemployed workers, getting them back to being productive members of the workforce.

I’m afraid this isn’t a deeply thought-out program, just a few brief ideas I’ve typed out over breakfast, but I think they would make a good basis for further public debate and I hope you consider it an adequate response to your query. Thank you for asking.

Skinning The Game

Hey, rich guys, just because you’re sociopaths, that’s doesn’t make you better or smarter than anyone else.

Where Are the Rich People? Oh, There You Are!

Is it any wonder that Congress takes better care of the rich than the poor and middle class?

Yes, They Are

They are indeed as bad as you think. Inept, indecisive, corrupt, out of touch.

It Was The Worst Of Times

Brown’s Law of History: History doesn’t repeat itself. It just gives pop quizzes to see if you were paying attention.

This article by Dominic Sandbrook is perhaps a bit alarmist, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Anyone who has studied much history knows that the most terrible, unthinkable things do sometimes actually happen. Citizens of the West today are fat and complacent, but not immune to the same tragedies that have befallen fat and complacent civilizations many, many times before.

Whose Security Are We Spending For?

This is a start. Not a very good start, but a start. Panetta is talking about cutting back some of the unnecessary increases of the last decade, not actually reducing military spending to a reasonable level.

The looming cuts inevitably force decisions on the scope and future of the American military. If, say, the Pentagon saves $7 billion over a decade by reducing the number of aircraft carriers to 10 from 11, would there be sufficient forces in the Pacific to counter an increasingly bold China? If the Pentagon saves nearly $150 billion in the next 10 years by shrinking the Army to, say, 483,000 troops from 570,000, would America be prepared for a grinding, lengthy ground war in Asia?

These questions are, frankly, stupid. Let me rephrase them.

Would 10 US carriers, backed by decades of experience in carrier operations, be sufficient to defeat China’s single barely-completed aircraft carrier that they bought from a salvage yard? Would five US carriers be up to the task?

If we were stupid enough to get involved in a major land war in Asia, would the difference between 570,000 troops and 483,000 really make a difference? Or even 250,000?

Arguments against reducing the size of the military establishment aren’t about national security. They’re about making sure that money keeps getting funneled to defense contractors (and back to the politicians, in the form of ‘campaign contributions’). Our actual military needs are tiny, and could be (and have been) served by a substantial navy (about half the size of the one we have now), and a minuscule army. Our needs are small, but the people hooked on that spending are strong.

Generals and admirals will always ask for more troops and ships. It is old wisdom that generals who go over-budget get scolded, but generals who fail get fired. Even so, our Congress spends even more on defense than the military asks for. Ask yourself why, and who is served by that spending. Is it you? Or the members of Congress, and the corporations that pay them?