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Like I Said

This is pretty much what I’ve been saying for a while now.

An Open Letter to Congress

My local Congressthing, Kenny Marchant, was unwise enough to send me a flyer with a small survey attached. I thought it did not adequately cover the issues, or allow a sufficient range of responses, so I wrote him a letter to go with it. Here it is.

Dear Mr. Marchant,

Your little survey on the Economy & Jobs doesn’t give adequate space for a proper reply, so I thought I would elaborate.

Of possible interest to you is the fact that practically no one is interested in ANY of the issues that you asked us to rank in importance. (A survey on the Economy and Jobs that doesn’t actually mention jobs?) The issues of importance to American families right now are jobs and household expenses, and little else. In short, when families don’t have any money and can’t afford Christmas presents for their children (much less a college education for those children), and are struggling just to put food on the table, I can assure you that reforming the tax code is not something they are even aware of, much less concerned about. Your slate of ‘concerns’ is not only insensitive, but outright insulting.

Your ‘choice’ between two ‘plans’ to ‘spur economic growth’ is almost as bad. ‘Lowering the tax burden’ isn’t going to make a significant difference to any families that actually need the help, at the cost of massively increasing our public debt, and ‘reducing Federal regulations’ is only going to lead to an orgy of misconduct on the part of various corporations, another financial crisis, and another looting of the public treasury. As is always the case with ‘deregulation.’ (A code phrase we all recognize now, Mr. Marchant. We know it means “Let the corporations who are paying for my campaign do whatever they want.”)

Raising Federal spending and taxes has a better chance of success, though I notice that the Republican party, for some reason, is only interested in raising taxes on poor and working class families, while cutting taxes even further for upper income families. A very curious thing, taking more money from those who don’t have it and giving it to those who don’t need it. Perhaps the party could use that as a campaign slogan next year. “We take from the poor and give to the rich. Vote Republican!” Well, perhaps not.

It was increased Federal spending (preparing for involvement in WWII) that finally got us out of the Great Depression (the last time the financial markets looted the country and destroyed the economy), so we know it can work. Unfortunately, it is inevitable that Congress will initiate the wrong spending and raise the wrong taxes.

If you are truly interested in what your constituents think would be an effective plan to spur economic growth, sir (and I know that you are not, and in fact are not even reading this, but perhaps some bored person on your staff has gotten this far), here are my thoughts.

First, cut all military spending by 75%. Spread this reduction out over three years, so that at the end of that time the budget for all military spending is 25% of its 2011 level. (A savings of about $700 billion, give or take a few tens of billions.) Our military expenditures have doubled in the past 10 years, and were at unnecessarily high levels before then. Our preponderance of military power (we spend six times as much as China, and ten times as much as Russia) is not only excessive, but bankrupting us. We are destroying ourselves (and our future military power) for the sake of gross overkill. Any plan to reduce the Federal budget that does not reduce military expenditures is not a serious plan, and everyone knows it.

Second, return the marginal tax on upper income brackets to its Eisenhower Administration levels. Specifically, and this is just pulling a few numbers out of the air (though still a more serious proposal than I’ve seen from most Presidential candidates this year), 70% on income over $500,000 (married, filing jointly), 85% on income over $750,000, 90% on income over $1,000,000, and 95% on income over $5,000,000. (Approximating the upper tax brackets of the Eisenhower era, where the marginal rate was 92% on income over $400,000 – a sum about equivalent to $5 million today.) This will raise additional tax revenue in a way that will not impact consumer spending (the driving force of much of the economy). I would also restore the capital gains tax, but let’s not get into too much detail on a simple survey response.

Third, institute a 2.5% tariff on all imports into the United States, without exception. (This would raise approximately $47.5 billion, based on 2010 imports.) This money would go into a fund. Corporations which move American jobs overseas would also pay into this fund (let’s say $50,000 per worker as a reasonable starting figure). For the first three years of the fund’s existence, an additional $75 billion per year would be added from the Federal general fund.

This fund would be used specifically (and only) for retraining US workers. Grants would be available to people who are currently unemployed or working only part-time and whose household income was under $100,000 the previous year. Higher income families could obtain student loans from this fund at a reasonable rate (say, 5 years at 5% interest, with interest and payments deferred for two years before the five-year repayment period begins). Households with an income over $250,000 would not be eligible.

To clarify:
Household income under $100,000: Grant eligible, no repayment.
Household income between $100,000 and $250,000: Student loan eligible.
Household income over $250,000: Not eligible.

This is the cornerstone of the plan. It is absolutely essential to the long-term and short-term economic health of the country that middle- and working-class families be financially stable and productive. Workers with outdated skills, or skills in a field that has contracted and no longer has room for them, must be given the opportunity to rejoin the workforce at a level at least similar to what they used to enjoy. This is critical not only for the economy (families without money can’t spend, creating a vicious cycle that causes the economy to contract even further), and the Federal budget (people who aren’t working aren’t paying taxes), but also for their own feelings of happiness and self-worth, and the country’s political stability. A worker who used to make, say, $75,000 a year and enjoyed a middle-class lifestyle, but who is now scratching by on $25,000 a year is not only less economically productive, but also likely to be depressed, angry, and looking for someone to blame. None of these things are good for the nation’s health, or his own.

Requiring corporations to pay into this retraining fund not only provides additional money, obviously, but it also requires the corporations to absorb some of the cost of their decision to move that job to a country with cheaper labor, rather than forcing the public to pay the cost while the corporation enjoys all of the profits.

The tariff itself is not intended to be a barrier to international commerce, but simply to add a little friction to the country’s economic frontiers, to encourage American money to stay here and benefit other Americans. A slight leveling of the playing field, to help make American-made goods more competitive against imports. Even if (as is likely), all of the increase in the cost of consumer goods were passed on to consumers, the price increases would not be prohibitive. The tariff would add, at most, 13 cents to the cost of a $5 t-shirt, or $625 to the cost of a $25,000 car. (Not much more than the ‘destination charge’ that dealers tack on.) Such a slight increase would not overly upset consumers, who know that the money is going to help them, and people like them.

Fourth, reform the banking industry. Any bank that is ‘too big to fail’ is too big to exist. That is, if a bank is so big that its failure would have catastrophic consequences, and it must be ‘bailed out’ (given huge piles of taxpayer cash, with no strings attached), that bank is too big and should be broken up into smaller institutions that are not a threat to the national economy. No bank should be able to hold the nation’s economy hostage. Restore the Glass-Steagall Act, to protect commercial and savings banks from being looted to fund speculation by investment banks.

Fifth, the educational system is badly in need of a complete overhaul. We have a system designed to churn out moderately-skilled factory workers, but we have done away with almost all of the factory jobs. Without an educational system to turn out workers suitable for a post-industrial economy, the United States cannot, and will not, enjoy long-term economic productivity and competitiveness. The extent of the reforms necessary there, though, are beyond the scope of this letter (we need to throw out the whole system and start over), but vouchers for parents who chose not to send their kids to public school would be a good start.

Sixth, this country desperately needs real healthcare reform. We currently spend more on healthcare than any other country, and get less for it. Growing healthcare costs will consume an increasing proportion of the GDP in the coming years, dragging down the whole economy and pricing many families out of healthcare entirely. As with education reform, though, a detailed breakdown of what is needed is outside the scope of this note.

This plan would reduce the Federal budget by about $650 over the next three years and add about another $275 billion per year in revenue, cutting the deficit by $925 billion. (More or less, from some quick calculations on a piece of scratch paper.) Calculations for that three years would be a bit more complicated, as the military budget would still be shrinking, and a portion of that savings would be allocated to the worker retraining fund, but I think it is still a healthy improvement to the budget. It would also provide $367.5 billion over those three years to educate and train currently unemployed workers, getting them back to being productive members of the workforce.

I’m afraid this isn’t a deeply thought-out program, just a few brief ideas I’ve typed out over breakfast, but I think they would make a good basis for further public debate and I hope you consider it an adequate response to your query. Thank you for asking.

A Person’s A Person, No Matter How Small

Earlier, when I called certain rich people sociopaths, I’m afraid I was being just a little bit unfair to them. But only a little.

First, for anyone who thinks I was engaging in hyperbole, this is the definition of ‘sociopath.’

A person, as a psychopathic personality, whose behavior is antisocial and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience.

Now, read that Rolling Stone article again and tell me that the hyper-rich Wall Street types in there don’t ‘lack a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience.”

The thing is, though, sociopathy is defined by the sociopath’s relationship with other people. Someone isn’t a sociopath for not having a sense of moral responsibility towards squirrels, right?

It’s in the definition of ‘other people’ where things get tricky.

To kill a peasant is not murder; it is helping to extinguish the conflagration. Let there be no half measures! Crush them! Cut their throats! Transfix them! Leave no stone unturned! To kill a peasant is to destroy a mad dog! – Martin Luther

Military organizations have long known that it is hard to get most soldiers to kill people. That’s much of the point of Basic Training and the other training and conditioning that soldiers go through; to get them to overcome that social barrier against killing other people. That training seems to be more necessary now than it was, say a thousand years ago, but I don’t think it’s because human nature has changed. I think our definition of ‘people’ has changed. It used to be that other tribes, other countries, were looked on as lesser beings. Not quite human. Modern communications and media have shown us how people who aren’t aren’t our neighbors live, and made them human to us. Wartime propaganda tries to return us to the old condition, where the enemy isn’t really human, so it’s okay to firebomb tens of thousands of women and children.

The concept of what a person is matters a great deal.

You aren’t really rich unless you can afford your own army — Marcus Licinius Crassus

The ultra-wealthy, throughout history, have always been a class apart from the lower orders of society, with their own rules and laws. (‘Privilege’ literally means ‘private law.’) To the wealthy nobles, in their fine manors, the peasants who worked their fields, living in dirt and filth, sharing their hovels with farm animals, must have seemed little more than animals themselves. The lifestyles of the two groups had almost no features in common; each was entirely alien to the other.

Can you imagine what the life of someone making millions of dollars a year is like? What it is like to literally have more money than you can spend? To be able to pick up a phone, call a powerful politician, and have him answer?

Now, from the lordly heights of fabulous wealth and power, try to imagine how the poor look. To someone who has so much money that it is truly meaningless, how does a family of four trying to scrape by on $25,000 a year look? (A billion dollars, earning 1% interest, will produce an income of more than $27,000 per day. That is at the low end of the income available to the ultra-wealthy.) That poor family might as well be part of some paleolithic tribe on the distant frontiers of civilization; they certainly aren’t part of the same world as the ultra-wealthy.

The ultra-wealthy jerks quoted in that Rolling Stone’s piece aren’t sociopaths, by their standards. I’m sure they treat people–their peers–with great respect and consideration. The rest of us, though…we’re just not people. A part of the social advantage they enjoy is that the rest of us still consider them people, and treat them with a consideration that they do not return.

For now.

Cost of War

The ‘War on Terror’ has cost us between 3 and 8 trillion dollars.

Do you feel safer, or just poorer?

Whose Pile Is Bigger?

John Barnes makes some good points about relative wealth. (Nor surprise; he’s a very clever fellow.)

Once you get above bare subsistence level, relative wealth is all that matters. There was a study done some years back that asked people if they would rather make $50,000 or $80,000 per year. Assuming the dollar is worth the same in both cases. The catch? In the world where they’re making $50,000, the average income is $40,000. In the world where they’re making $80,000, the average income is $100,000. In other words, “Would you rather be objectively better-off, but poorer than your neighbors; or poorer, but richer than your neighbors?

Most people chose the $50,000 option. They’d rather live in a world where they were poor, but most other people were poorer than one in which they’re well-off, but most people are even better-off.

People would rather have a pile of pennies that’s bigger than everyone else’s than a pile of dollars that’s smaller. (You may, at this point, write your own penis joke. Go ahead; I know you’re thinking of one.)

I think most Americans would rather be medieval nobility than lower-middle-class Americans. The life of a modern American of even modest means is objectively better than that of a medieval Count in almost every respect. Better entertainment options, more comfortable houses and furniture, better food, infinitely better health care. The medieval noble has one insurmountable advantage, though; he’s better-off than nearly everyone else in his society.

The Count may live in a miserable, drafty, barn, with uncomfortable furniture and no indoor plumbing, his children may suffer appalling infant mortality rates, he’ll probably die before he sees sixty years, he may experience terrible pain from any number of medical conditions (and the so-called cures popular at the time), and his diet may be poor and unappetizing to modern palates, but by god he gets to lord it over the peasants.

But that’s what wealth is all about; being able to lord it over the peasants. Everything else is secondary. This is why the destruction of the middle class is a good thing…for the people whose wealth isn’t wipied-out. More people for them to be richer than.

We can’t talk about it that way, though. Certainly not in the national debate about wealth and taxes. I mean, which soundbite do you think is going to play better on the evening news:

A: “Give me an extra $150,000 a year so I can look down on even more of you peasants.”

Or:

B: “Give me an extra $150,000 a year and I might give you a job.”

You’ll hear some variation on B a lot. Just remember that what they really mean is A.

Trickle Up

Have We Bought Enough Yet?

“Obama could have, instead of giving money to these large mortgage holders, said ‘We will pay off all mortgages up to $300,000.’ It would have cost far, far less than what they gave the banks.”

This is an excellent idea. The only thing wrong with it is that in this country we consider it morally wrong to give money to people who aren’t already rich. Only the rich and corporations are morally worthy of government largesse.

As far as the government is concerned, us commoners can fuck off; they’ll bail out Wall Street, but we don’t give them enough campaign contributions to be worth the investment.

Also, it would go against the interests of the very rich to question the benefits (to the very rich) of ‘trickle down’ economics. (For those not familiar with the term, it is a Reagan-era idea that if we give all our money to rich people, they’ll give a little of it back to everyone else. It remains very popular, with rich people, despite the resounding proof over the decades that that whole ‘give a little of it back’ part never happens.)

The way out of an economic downturn is to put money in the hands of people who will actually spend it; the common folks. Trickle UP. We’ve known that for generations. (it’s how we got out of the Great Depression; Social Security money and wartime mobilization jobs.) But what we actually do is give money to rich people and corporations. The only people that benefits is the rich and their corporations. So why do we do it?

Why do our legislators only do things that benefit the people who give them massive amounts of cash every year? Hmm. I’m stumped.

Enjoy Your Workday

You would have to work 24 hours a day, five days a week at a minimum-wage job, to convince Mitt Romney that you’re responsible.

Enjoy. Also enjoy the thousands of dollars in payroll taxes you’ll be paying that Romney considers so negligible that they don’t even count as taxes. And your state and local taxes like property tax and sales tax….

Redistribution of What to Whom?

Mitt Romney says ‘redistribution’ of wealth isn’t the American Way. He’s wrong, and he knows it. Over the last twenty years billions of dollars have been redistributed from the middle and working classes to the wealthy. Romney is fine with that. He’s just afraid the peasants trying to get a little of their own back.

Follow The Scarcity

Clayton M. Christensen has the beginning of an interesting article here. Unfortunately, he trails off at the end with only a few platitudes about solving the problem he’s pointed out.

We can use capital with abandon now, because it’s abundant and cheap. But we can no longer waste education, subsidizing it in fields that offer few jobs. Optimizing return on capital will generate less growth than optimizing return on education.

His point–and it’s a very good one, though not a complete picture of what’s wrong with our economy–is that optimizing capital usage is the wrong approach now. Capital is plentiful; what’s scarce is skilled workers. Expend capital, optimize worker training.

The only suggestions he offers for doing that, though, are to lower taxes on the rich, and some vague complaints about indiscriminate financial aid. I can do better than that, so I will.

Christensen suggests reducing the (already very low) capital gains tax over time, to encourage long term investments.

We should instead make capital gains regressive over time, based upon how long the capital is invested in a company. Taxes on short-term investments should continue to be taxed at personal income rates. But the rate should be reduced the longer the investment is held — so that, for example, tax rates on investments held for five years might be zero — and rates on investments held for eight years might be negative.

He doesn’t say at what level he would start the capital gains tax (currently 15% on investments held for at least one year). I would start it at 30%, then reduce it by three percentiles per year after that, so after holding it for ten years any profits from your investment would be tax-free. That would accomplish Christensen’s stated goal of encouraging long-term investment, while also discouraging short term investment (carrot and stick, rather than just the carrot he offers).

If the government is to be in the business of directing students into degree plans and training programs, I would offer a student loan repayment program for students going into certain fields. Every year, the selected fields would be re-evaluated, based on the projected needs of the economy five years hence.

These things would be a nice supplement to my economic reform plan.

Broaden The Base

There’s a lot of talk about ‘broadening the tax base.’ That basically means making poor people pay more Federal income taxes.

Here’s a suggestion: Instead of broadening the tax base, how about we broaden the prosperity base. Let’s move more poor people up into the income tax paying brackets, rather than moving the income tax paying brackets down to encompass more poor people.

Same result for the tax base, less human misery. Unless it’s the misery that you’re after?